Tulane vs. North Texas: A Championship Clash for College Football Glory

 

Tulane vs. North Texas: A Championship Clash for College Football Glory

As the 2025 college football postseason reaches its climax, all eyes turn to New Orleans, where No. 24 Tulane plays host to North Texas in one of the most consequential Group-of-Five showdowns of the year. With a conference title and a coveted spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP) potentially on the line, the stakes have never been higher.

Teams’ Records & What’s at Stake

Both Tulane and North Texas enter the game with strong resumes. North Texas arrives at 11–1 overall; Tulane follows closely at 10–2. In conference play, both finished 7–1 — and each earned the spot in the championship game via tiebreakers. The winner of this game could very well punch a ticket to the CFP, marking a major statement for whichever program comes out on top.

Significantly, both teams’ head coaches are already slated to depart after the season ends: North Texas’ coach is headed to a Power-Four program, and Tulane’s similarly has a major gig waiting. Yet, both will remain on the sidelines for this final game, giving the night an extra emotional and symbolic weight.

North Texas: Explosive Offense, Question Mark Schedule

North Texas enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, with pundits pointing to its offensive firepower as the difference-maker. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has unveiled himself as one of the nation’s elite passers, throwing for nearly 3,835 yards and 29 touchdowns this season, with very few interceptions. Behind him, freshman running back Caleb Hawkins provides a punishing ground game — the Mean Green ranks among the top rushing teams nationally. Complementing them is wide receiver Wyatt Young, whose speed and playmaking threat stretch defenses and create explosive plays.

North Texas’ offense is averaging a staggering 46.8 points per game, the highest scoring mark in the country — and it has matched or exceeded 50 points in each of its last three regular-season games. That consistency has many analysts predicting yet another high-scoring performance, especially if the Mean Green can avoid turnovers and control tempo from the start.

However, there's a caveat. While North Texas has feasted on the scoreboard, critics point to a relatively weak strength of schedule compared to typical elite teams. Their only game against a ranked opponent ended in a lopsided loss, which raises questions about how battle-tested they truly are. The championship stage — and the pressure that comes with it — could reveal vulnerabilities.

Tulane: Seasoned, Balanced — and Battle-Tested

Tulane, meanwhile, brings a different kind of résumé: one defined by consistency and resilience. Despite a challenging midseason loss, the Green Wave responded strongly, defeating quality opposition and avoiding losses to sub-.500 teams. Their victories over strong programs outside their conference — including Power-Four teams — serve as proof of their mettle.

On defense, Tulane has been solid enough to weather storms. While North Texas’ aerial and ground attack pose a real challenge, the Green Wave have shown an ability to stay disciplined and organized under pressure. Their more balanced schedule and willingness to bounce back from adversity make them a dangerous underdog.

Offensively, Tulane’s signal-caller Jake Retzlaff is more of a dual-threat, combining passing and rushing ability — a potential contrast to North Texas’ pass-heavy identity. If Tulane can slow the Mean Green’s offense and control the line of scrimmage, they could flip the script.

Predictions, Betting Trends, and What Experts Expect

Bookmakers and projection models lean toward a high-scoring affair. The betting line sits at North Texas –2.5, with an over/under set at an unusually high 66.5 points — the highest among all the championship games this week. Some predictive models — simulating the game thousands of times — project a combined score hovering around 71 points, favoring the over.

The expectation among many analysts is that North Texas will ultimately prevail — powered by their high-octane offense. Many believe that the Mean Green's balanced attack, depth, and explosive weapons make them the more likely winner and spread-covering team.

That said, there’s also a strong case for Tulane pulling off an upset. Their track record this season shows resilience in adversity and an ability to execute under pressure. If they can disrupt North Texas’ rhythm — via turnovers, controlling possession, or slowing the tempo — they could emerge with the title.

For bettors, the “over” on total points is widely regarded as the best value bet, with some suggesting additional wagers on key players: touchdowns by Hawkins; high receiving yards for Young; and even a rush-yards bonus for Retzlaff.

Why This Game Matters — Beyond a Conference Title

This championship game carries implications far beyond the AAC. Should the winner prevail convincingly, they could earn a berth in the CFP — a rare and major opportunity for a Group-of-Five team. That alone underscores the national significance of the matchup.

Moreover, both programs are at crossroads; with coaching turnovers imminent, this game could serve as a final showcase — a statement to recruits, fans, and the wider college football world. For Tulane, a third straight conference-title game appearance would cement their status as a contender despite personnel changes. For North Texas, it could mark a breakout — launching the program into higher-profile consideration.

In a broader sense, a strong showing by either — and especially a playoff-worthy performance — could enhance the credibility of “non-power conference” teams. The result could influence perceptions of conference strength, playoff access, and perhaps even future scheduling and ranking practices in college football.

Scenarios to Watch

• A High-Octane Shootout: If North Texas executes its offense cleanly — leveraging Mestemaker’s arm, Hawkins’ legs, and Young’s speed — this could turn into a fast-paced, high-scoring affair.

• Control and Upset via Defense: If Tulane can disrupt rhythm, force turnovers, and control time of possession, they could frustrate North Texas and steal the win.

• Balanced Offenses, Mistake-Heavy Finish: With both teams capable of moving the ball, turnovers — especially given Tulane’s history with them — could play a critical role.

• Playoff Implications and Legacy: Beyond the game, the winner could carry momentum into the postseason — and define their program’s direction for years to come.

Final Thoughts

Friday night’s championship matchup between Tulane and North Texas is more than just a game — it’s a defining moment for both programs. With massive stakes, contrasting styles, and high-level talent on both sides, it promises to be one of the most compelling games of the 2025 college football season.

Whether you back the explosive Mean Green or the resilient Green Wave, one thing is clear: college football fans everywhere will be watching — and the outcome could resonate far beyond New Orleans.